Assessing the U.S. Regional Aviation Industry’s COVID-19-impacted Present and Future

Posted by Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation News Team on Apr 16, 2020 11:32:34 PM


You won’t be surprised to know that Mitsubishi Aircraft is closely monitoring the impacts of COVID-19 on the regional aviation sector. In this post and others to come, we intend to share what we’re seeing as part of our commitment to helping the industry understand the current and ongoing impacts of disruptions that were hard to imagine just a few months ago.

It’s self-evident that this is a remarkable event in terms of the scale and impact across commercial aviation. That said – and with the caveat that these remain the early days of a still-unfolding event – our analysis indicates that regional aviation has so far proven to be resilient relative to the overall sector, and that past disruptive events offer signs of hope and strength on the other side of a difficult period.

Examining the four major U.S. network carriers, as of April 15th mainline aircraft have exited service since January 22nd at a rate just under 50% greater than regional aircraft (35% for regional, 51% for mainline). Excepting already-planned phase-outs of aircraft, the regional rate shrinks to 30%. A recent analysis by The Air Current demonstrates this phenomenon in practice, and examines the ways in which major airlines are turning to small narrowbodies and regional aircraft to maintain network scale on domestic routes.

We do not believe that we have seen the maximum extent of COVID-related impacts on service, but this early data does hold with historic trends. In the immediate post-9/11 period we witnessed a similar trend in the relative resilience of regional versus mainline aircraft deployment, and during the “Great Recession” of 2008, regional aircraft used on domestic U.S. routes were similarly resilient.

The question that naturally follows: what are the underlying reasons why we are seeing this trend? We have a few working assumptions:


Airlines are eager to preserve service to existing routes and maintain slot access at those airports. And in some cases, government aid is contingent on this preservation of service.


In that context, regional aircraft offer a better seat-count match to capacity in a low-demand environment. Airlines can maintain schedules similar to those pre-disruption, but with smaller aircraft that deliver more favorable economics.


Regional aircraft help airlines conserve cash reserves since they deliver lower operating costs relative to larger aircraft – they offer a lever by which costs related to fuel, maintenance, crew and fees can be constrained.

In short, regional aircraft give airlines the ability to maintain breadth of network coverage while reducing the depth of seat-mile capacity.

Some factors are difficult to assess at this point. For example, how much of airlines’ motive to preserve service is commercially driven versus done to comply with terms of government financial assistance? We intend to refine our assumptions as data emerges. But at this stage, the central forces in play regarding the novel coronavirus seem to mimic those experienced in the other recent industry shocks that we’re using as reference.

This is a rapidly evolving and still unfolding situation, with a great deal of known and potentially unknown variables in play. Regardless, what we see as certain is the vital role that regional aviation plays in the economic and social fabric of our local and global societies.

As such, expect more from us in the weeks and months ahead, including original analysis and compilations of thinking from across the industry. It’s critical for regional aviation that OEMs, airlines and other stakeholders put forward their best collective efforts in charting a course toward re-establishing the vital economic and societal resource of regional aviation.

MRJ's First Test Aircraft Completes Ferry Flight to the U.S. Frequent, multiple flight tests scheduled toward type certificate acquisition

Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) today completed the ferry flight to the United States for the First Test Aircraft (FTA-1) of the MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet), the next-generation regional jet. Mitsubishi Aircraft is committed to carrying out frequent, multiple flight tests in the U. S. to accelerate the development of the MRJ toward type certificate acquisition in 2018.

FTA-1 took off from Nagoya Airfield at 1:28 pm on September 26 (JST), and arrived at Grant County International Airport in Washington, the U.S. at 9:44am on September 29 (JST) (5:44pm on September 28 in local time).






Mitsubishi Aircraft and MHI remain committed to achieving steady progress in flight tests with the assistance of three engineering bases (Moses Lake Flight Test Center, the MRJ flight test center within Grant County International Airport; Seattle Engineering Center and Mitsubishi Aircraft Headquarters in Japan) working together toward the success of the MRJ project.

MRJ Completes First Flight

 Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) today conducted the first flight of the first flight test aircraft for the MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet), their next-generation regional jet.

 The MRJ took off from Nagoya Airport and confirmed its basic characteristics and functionality in ascent, descent and turning in airspace off the Pacific coast during its 1.5-hour first flight.

“The MRJ successfully took to the sky today thanks to ongoing cooperation and support from all members involved,” said Hiromichi Morimoto, President, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation. “We will make our utmost efforts towards type certificate acquisition, committing all our resources to develop and produce the finest regional jet aircraft to enter commercial service in 2017.” 

 “Operational performance of the MRJ was far better than expected. We had a significantly comfortable flight,” said Pilot Yasumura, who served as captain.

Mitsubishi Aircraft and MHI will continue to conduct flight tests for the first delivery scheduled for the second quarter of 2017. The flight tests in the US are scheduled to start in the second quarter of 2016, from the MRJ base at Grant County International Airport at Moses Lake in Washington State. 

Going forward, Mitsubishi Aircraft and MHI continue to devote their collective resources towards the successful completion of the MRJ project.

MRJ

MRJ Rollout Ceremony to be Webcast Live at 2 pm (JP time) / 5 am (GMT) on Saturday, October 18

The Rollout Ceremony of the MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet) will be webcast live at MHI-NASW (Nagoya Aerospace Systems Works) on Saturday, October 18th, 2014.

You are invited to watch the ceremony via the Internet and share this event to witness the sure progress of the MRJ program.


Date:
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Time: 2:00 pm to 2:30 pm (JP time)
5:00 am to 5:30 am (GMT)
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mrj-roll-out-ceremony-en
* The ceremony will be held inside the Komaki South Plant and is not visible externally.

The new Eastern Air Lines signs a MOU for 20 Mitsubishi MRJ90s

Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation announced today that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for an order for twenty firm MRJ90 with purchase rights to an additional twenty MRJ90s with the Eastern Air Lines Group, Inc. (Eastern Airlines 2nd) (Miami). Based on this MOU, both companies will move forward to conclude a definitive agreement in the near future. Deliveries are scheduled to commence in 2019.

Eastern previously stated they had ordered the Boeing 737-800 in order to start operations. The proposed airline is still in the FAA certification process.

Thus far, 325 MRJ are on order, including 25 (15 firm, 10 option) from All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd., 100 (50 firm, 50 option) from Trans States Holdings, Inc. and 200 (100 firm, 100 option) from SkyWest, Inc.

The Engines Mounted on MRJ’s First Flight Test Aircraft

Nagoya, June 26, 2014 – The PurePower® PW1200G engines were mounted on the Mitsubishi Regional Jet’s (MRJ) first flight test aircraft at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ (MHI) final-assembly factory (Komaki South Plant, MHI's Nagoya Aerospace Systems Works located in Aichi Prefecture). This engine mount marks a significant milestone toward MRJ’s completion.

Mitsubishi Aircraft has been engaged in mounting the Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower® engines since mid-June. The installation of other equipment, the wiring work and the piping work are being carried out, fast tracking the final-assembly process for the first flight scheduled next year.

Mitsubishi Aircraft and MHI remain firmly committed to the success of the MRJ program as well as the growth of Japan’s aviation industry.